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1000 ways to die raccoon11/29/2022 ![]() ![]() Alternatively, in epidemics where patients are hospitalized for lengthy periods before recovering or dying, a naïve real-time CFR estimate, dividing number of deaths by numbers of cases, will initially underestimate CFR, as patients will be recorded as cases before their outcome is known, and then the CFR will apparently rise over time as deaths occur and are recorded in the 2003 SARS epidemic this apparently increasing CFR was wrongly interpreted as indicating an increase in virulence. 32 The CFR may be overestimated if many subclinical infections go uncounted. 31 The reduction in the reproductive number in each country reflects the effectiveness of control measures such as quarantine and travel restrictions in curbing the epidemic.Įstimating the case-fatality ratio (CFR) of newly emerged pathogens is difficult as defining true cases can be problematic. ![]() Reproduction number estimates from before the WHO global alert, for Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore and Canada, respectively, were 3.6, 2.4, 3.1 and 2.7, and after were 0.7, 0.3, 0.7 and 1. Models of SARS transmission provided estimates of the key epidemiological parameters and showed how spreading was controlled by effective intervention. Transmission was linked to close contact with cases, mostly in hospital, affecting healthcare workers or patients. SARS spread quickly from China to other parts of Asia, Europe, the Americas and elsewhere, infecting >8000 individuals in 29 countries and killing at least 774 people. 3,29 Early cases are thought to have involved zoonotic infection, with subsequent genetic changes enabling greater human-to-human transmission, which accounted for the vast majority of cases in the global pandemic of 2002/3. SARS is caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV) normally found in wild animals such as the palm civet cat and Chinese ferret badger. White, in Infectious Diseases (Fourth Edition), 2017 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ![]()
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